- Silver lining in the Safaricom split narrative
- Equity Bank is strong but with an Achilles heel
- Safaricom: Value Investing Against Bear Runs
- PesaLink: the silver lining in bank stocks
- Ditch that Merry-Go-Round Club Now
- Weak shilling, subdued market, great opportunity!
- Investing Through NSE Bear Runs
- Is there Hope for Kenya Airways?
- REITS 101: A Premier on Real Estate Investment Trusts
- The Leading Supplier of CO2 in East Africa
- Atlas Development Support Services - Why Ethiopia?
- A brief on Equity Group Holdings
- The Potential of Kengen
- Part 9: Being a Good Company Does'nt Mean Being a Good Stock
- Why you should accumulate Safaricom shares
- Part 8: Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact
- Part 7: You Can't Go Broke Taking a Profit
- Part 6: A Paper Loss Is Not a Loss
- Part 5: If Institutional Investors are Buying, Then The Stock Must Be a very Good
- Part 4: Cut Your Losses and Let Your Profits Run.
- Part 3: Buy the Stock That Splits
- Part 2: The Stock Market Rises as the Bond Market Falls
- Part 1: Buy When There Is Blood on the Street
- Centum: Potential Upside with a Price Target of KES 142.67
- Bamburi Cement: Valuation scenarios using the dividend discount model
myStocks Blog & Market Commentary
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held a special meeting on 14th September 2011. The meeting had become necessary as the previous actions of the MPC this year had been largely ineffective, and the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) had been forced to take a number of measures between the MPC meetings in order to stabilize markets.
The market was impacted by the uncertainty in global markets - the debt crisis in Greece and other European countries, the stand-off in the US regarding the debt ceiling and the downgrade of US Government debt by Standard & Poor. The NSE All Share Index fell to 76.14 on 25th August 2011, down 22.16% points from the beginning of the year and down 9.70% points from the beginning of the month.
In our July newsletter, we had given our opinion that the Monetary Policy Committee of the CBK should have increased the Central Bank Rate (CBR) in its July meeting, and that the appropriate rate was at least 8%, instead of leaving the rate unchanged at 6.25%. On 12th August, the Central Bank once again reverted to a tight monetary policy stance, just 2 weeks after indicating that they did not believe tight policy stance would have the desired result.
The Monetary Policy adopted by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) since January has been sending conflicting and contradictory signals. At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held on 27th July, the Central Bank Rate (CBR) was left unchanged at a level of 6.25%, much against market expectations of an increase of 0.25% to 0.50%. We have tabulated below the observations and the policy actions taken on the monetary policy front since January 2011.
Inflation has increased for the ninth straight month in July, bringing renewed pressure on the Central bank to tighten its monetary policy. Inflation may slow to between 8 percent and 9 percent by the end of the year if the central bank raises rates, while failure to tighten monetary policy may keep the inflation rate above 12 percent.
In our previous newsletters, we have highlighted that the prices and yields of secondary market trades reported at the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) are at artificial prices, and not reflective of the market, as a majority trades are taking place at grossly inflated prices.
In March and April we had given our stock picks I&M Bank (unlisted), Kenol Kobil (KENO) and Total Kenya (TOTL) - we revisit these stock picks in this newsletter.
The Central Bank follows an accommodative monetary policy stance with the aim of stimulating economic activity. The monetary policy is successful in pushing market interest rates to record lows, as well as leading to a spurt in bank lending, and an increase in GDP growth. The low interest rates lead to a rush by investors to subscribe to long-term Treasury bonds in preference to Treasury bills, leading to a lengthening of the average maturity of Government debt.
Safaricom's results for the year ended in March 2011 covered the most traumatic period in the company's history. The company faced challenges from the regulatory regime, which were seen to be tilting the playing field in favour of competition. On the competitive front, the year saw the entry of the Indian telecommunication group Airtel
The yield on the 91-day Treasury Bill continued its upward trajectory, reaching a rate of 3.52% at the latest auction. The rise has been somewhat muted as a number of banks have opted to invest in 91-day Treasury bills and give other maturities a miss, until the market is seen to have stabilized. This has resulted in a sharper increase at the longer end of the yield curves.
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IndicesNSE 20-Share IndexNSE 25-Share IndexNSE All-Share Index
AgriculturalEaagads LtdKakuziKapchorua Tea Kenya PlcLimuru Tea Company LtdSasini Tea and Coffee LtdWilliamson Tea Kenya Plc
Automobiles and AccessoriesCar and General (K) Ltd
BankingBarclays Bank LtdCo-operative Bank of Kenya…Diamond Trust Bank Kenya LtdEquity Group Holdings LtdHF Group LimitedI & M Holdings LimitedKenya Commercial Bank LtdNational Bank of Kenya LtdNIC Bank LtdStanbic Holdings LtdStandard Chartered Bank Ltd
Commercial and ServicesDeacons (East Africa) PLCExpress LtdKenya Airways LtdLonghorn Kenya LtdNairobi Business Ventures…Nation Media Group PlcStandard Group LtdTPS Eastern Africa (Serena)…
Construction and AlliedARM Cement LtdBamburi Cement LtdCrown Berger LtdEast African Cables LtdEast African Portland Cement…
Energy and PetroleumKenolKobil LtdKenya Electricity Generating…Kenya Power and Lighting LtdTotal Kenya LtdUmeme Limited
InsuranceBritam Holdings LtdCIC Insurance Group LtdJubilee Holdings LtdKenya Re-Insurance…Liberty Kenya Holdings LtdSanlam Kenya Plc
Investment ServicesNairobi Securities Exchange…
Manufacturing and AlliedBOC Kenya LtdBritish American Tobacco…Carbacid Investments LtdEast African Breweries LtdEveready East Africa LtdFlame Tree Group Holdings…Kenya Orchards LtdMumias Sugar Company LtdUnga Group Ltd
Telecommunication and Tech…Safaricom PLC